Table of Contents
Is a prediction about the future?
A prediction is what someone thinks will happen. A prediction is a forecast, but not only about the weather. So a prediction is a statement about the future. It’s a guess, sometimes based on facts or evidence, but not always.
What is a prediction of future events?
A prediction (Latin præ-, “before,” and dicere, “to say”), or forecast, is a statement about a future event or data. They are often, but not always, based upon experience or knowledge.
WHO predicts future?
He wrote an almanac for 1550 and, as a result of its success, continued writing them for future years as he began working as an astrologer for various wealthy patrons….Nostradamus.
| Michel de Nostredame | |
|---|---|
| Nostradamus: original portrait by his son Cesar | |
| Born | 14 or21 December 1503 Saint-Rémy-de-Provence, Provence, Kingdom of France |
How do you forecast the future?
Forecasting Methods
- Straight line. Constant growth rate. Minimum level. Historical data.
- Moving average. Repeated forecasts. Minimum level. Historical data.
- Simple linear regression. Compare one independent with one dependent variable. Statistical knowledge required. A sample of relevant observations.
- Multiple linear regression.
How do we write predictions?
Predictions are often written in the form of “if, and, then” statements, as in, “if my hypothesis is true, and I were to do this test, then this is what I will observe.” Following our sparrow example, you could predict that, “If sparrows use grass because it is more abundant, and I compare areas that have more twigs …
What makes a good forecast?
A good forecast is “unbiased.” It correctly captures predictable structure in the demand history, including: trend (a regular increase or decrease in demand); seasonality (cyclical variation); special events (e.g. sales promotions) that could impact demand or have a cannibalization effect on other items; and other.
What makes a good prediction?
Predicting requires the reader to do two things: 1) use clues the author provides in the text, and 2) use what he/she knows from personal experience or knowledge (schema). When readers combine these two things, they can make relevant, logical predictions.